The lengthy process of drawing up a mammoth growth plan for the South East region — England's California — is about to enter its final lap. But a 'Sustainability Appraisal Report' drawn up by consultants {1} as part of the process of preparing the plan points to severe and worsening environmental problems associated with growth.

The Sustainability Appraisal warns that the densely populated, prosperous South East is in danger of drying out through water shortages, of suffering steadily worsening traffic congestion and air pollution and being overwhelmed by a rising tide of household waste.

Yet, at the same time, the region is still unlikely to build enough affordable new homes to prevent increasing housing problems.

The appraisal says the plan, which covers the period up to 2026, puts far too much reliance on the public changing their behaviour in order to lessen environmental damage. More Government leadership and intervention is required. It also points to worsening growth pains and environmental damage without a major increase in infrastructure provision, from public transport to water supplies — and Government also has a big role to play here.

The appraisal, drawn up with input from English Nature, the Environment Agency and English Heritage, warns of:

• '...A shortage of affordable housing which prevents "key workers" and the low paid from living/working in many parts of the region (p35). 'It will be extremely difficult for targets for affordable housing to be met...' (p38).
• Growth in road traffic and air pollution. 'Without significant investment and policy action it is likely that private transport and emissions from transport will increase,' (p42).
• The planned levels of housing development... will place considerable pressures on transport infrastructure and will cause greenhouse gas emissions, water consumption and waste arising to increase. They are also likely to put more localised pressures on floodplain, landscape/countryside, biodiversity, water resources and air quality.' (p65)
• Behavioural change — people switching to greener living, working and travelling — lies 'at the heart' of saving the environment but 'in practice it has not been at the forefront of government policies or initiatives to date. The South East is faced with a substantial gap between its aspirations for behavioural change and its ability to deliver such change. The region will have to rely on extensive Central Government action to achieve the levels of change in behaviour on which the plan is based.'(p65)

This Friday, 31 March, the South East Regional Assembly's adopted version of the plan opens for 12 weeks of public consultation, prior to a lengthy inquiry starting in November and running through to March next year — its 'Examination in Public'. The panel running this inquiry will then recommend changes to the plan, and pass it on to Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott for final approval next year.

It may be that Mr Prescott demands that the South East Plan specifies higher levels of total housebuilding than the 29,000 new homes a year currently set out in the plan — that's 580,000 homes over the next 20 years. If so, he is likely to face strong opposition from many of the local councils represented on the South East Regional Assembly.

The Campaign to Protect Rural England, CPRE {2}, will be responding to the public consultation, arguing strongly for the region's countryside and environment to be protected by making growth as 'green' as possible and stressing the need for a substantial increase in the building of subsidised, affordable homes in the region above current rates.

The South East Region covers Kent, East and West Sussex, Surrey, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire. It is second only to London in terms of Gross Domestic Product per head, but — lacking London's large concentrations of poverty and deprivation — it is, overall, the most prosperous and growth-pressurised region of England. Its housing is also amongst the least affordable. It includes towns and cities with large pockets of deprivation requiring regeneration, with substantial 'brownfield' sites for housebuilding.

The Sustainability Appraisal, which is part of the South East Plan, examines the social, economic and environmental impacts of the growth set out in the plan. It includes a Strategic Environmental Assessment required by EU law.

CPRE South East Regional Group Director Edward Dawson said: 'In this crowded region, the green backcloth of the countryside is a precious resource, and one that supports a high quality of life.

'We will campaign for urban regeneration, and for maximum use of derelict, underused urban land and buildings for new housing which regenerates places. We also want a shift away from wastefully low housing densities.

'We strongly support the need for more subsidised, affordable housing in the region and we back the South East Plan's target for 40 per cent of new homes to be in the affordable category, either for rent or low cost home ownership.'

NOTES FOR EDITORS

1. Internet links on the South East England Regional Assembly website:
> Final sustainablility apprasial report on the draft
South East plan (857K PDF)
> South East Plan
> Sub regional strategies

2. CPRE, the Campaign to Protect Rural England, is a charity which promotes the beauty, tranquillity and diversity of rural England. We advocate positive solutions for the long-term future of the countryside. Founded in 1926, we have 60,000 supporters and a branch in every county. President: Sir Max Hastings. Patron: Her Majesty The Queen.